AI brings at least a 5% chance of human extinction, survey of scientists says
An AI sign displayed on a phone screen, a silhouette of a paper in shape of a human face and a binary code displayed on a screen are seen in this illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland on January 15, 2023. (Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Ge
The technological advancements in artificial intelligence have left some to wonder what it may mean for humans in the future, and now scientists are weighing in.
In a paper that surveyed 2,700 AI researchers, almost 58% of respondents said there’s a 5% chance of human extinction and other AI related outcomes.
These findings, published in the science and technology publication New Scientist, asked researchers to share their thoughts on the potential timelines for future AI technological milestones.
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Scientists also predicted that within the next 10 years AI systems may have a 50% chance of managing tasks, including writing songs or coding a payment processing site from scratch.
Separately, more arduous tasks like installing electrical wiring in a new home or solving mathematical mysteries may take longer.
Scientists said AI outperforming humans on tasks had a 50% chance of occurring by 2047, and the likelihood of human jobs being fully automatable by 2116 was at 50%, the survey noted.
When researchers shared their biggest concerns with AI, 70% or more of respondents expressed worry about deepfakes, manipulation of public opinion, worsening economic inequality, engineered weapons, authoritarian control, and spreading misinformation and worsening democratic governance.
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Manipulated images and videos surrounding elections are nothing new, yet 2024 will be the first U.S. presidential election in which sophisticated AI tools that can produce convincing fakes in seconds are just a few clicks away.
The fabricated images, videos and audio clips known as deepfakes have started making their way into experimental presidential campaign ads, the Associated Press reported.
The Associated Press contributed to this report. This story was reported from Washington, D.C.