Austin Public Health makes changes to how recovered COVID-19 cases determined

AUSTIN, Texas - Austin Public Health (APH) says that starting Thursday, June 4 it will calculate the number of estimated recovered cases to align with the new criteria established by the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS).

The update number is an estimate based on several assumptions related to hospitalization rates and recovery times.

“This approach will align us with DSHS reporting,” APH Chief Epidemiologist Janet Pichette says in a news release. “It’ll provide a much better idea of the cases that have recovered in our community.”

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The DSHS calculation estimates recovered cases by:

• Including total confirmed cases
• Removing any fatalities
• Estimating that approximately 20% of remaining cases required hospitalization and approximately 80% of remaining cases did not receive hospitalization (based on published study of trends in China)
• Estimating that recovery time for hospitalized patients is approximately 32 days, and recovery time for non-hospitalized patients is approximately 14 days

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Using the DSHS calculation, the estimated number of individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 will increase compared to what APH had previously been reporting on its dashboard.

Prior to this change, the recovery number presented on the dashboard was based on “reported” recoveries at the time of the case investigation.

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Case investigation requires extensive and time-consuming work and also results in a lag in data and an untimely representation of recovered patients. During the case investigation process, when an epidemiologist contacts the patient, they may still be experiencing symptoms and would not be classified as recovered at that time.

With the new recovery estimate, the formula allows for a more accurate recovered number for our community based on the assumptions laid out.

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