Election 2024: How Colin Allred vs Ted Cruz Senate race is shaping up

AUSTIN, Texas - As we head toward Election Day, there are lots of ads about the Senate race.

Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) is looking to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who is running for a third term.

James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at UT Austin, says the race has been ramping up in the past month. 

"Not a lot of people were paying attention to that race before Labor Day. Since then, anybody that happens to see this almost certainly will have seen an avalanche of advertising from both of those campaigns," he said. 

Henson says Cruz has the advantages of being the incumbent and a Republican. He narrowly kept his seat in 2018 when Beto O'Rourke ran against him. Allred has never run in a statewide race. 

"This year, the fundamentals are different. There's a Democrat in the White House. It's a presidential election year. On one hand, we expect that there will be more Democrats voting because we have more Democrats in the electorate in presidential years compared to midterm years in Texas. We also know that Joe Biden has been particularly unpopular in Texas. What's unclear is just how much Kamala Harris will have to shoulder that burden and how much of that will trickle down and affect Colin Allred," Henson said. 

Allred has been raising more money than Cruz. Federal Election Commission data from January 2023 to September 2024 shows Allred raised $68.7 million, compared to Cruz raising $43.3 million in that timeframe. 

"Colin Allred, the Democratic challenger, has been very successful at fundraising, so there's a lot of parity. That is, we expect that Republicans in Texas, all things being equal, are not going to run out of money in a statewide race," Henson said.

Cruz has spent $33 million, with $13.6 million cash on hand. 

Allred has spent $65.4 million with $3.3 million cash on hand. 

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"Texas is a big state with a lot of people and a lot of media markets. It's expensive to run in, and it's a big lift to introduce yourself to Texans," Henson said. 

Henson says issues driving voters tend to be the economy on both sides. Outside of that, Republicans push issues like border security, and Democrats push issues like reproductive rights.

"Collin Allred's record has been hard left," Cruz said in an interview with FOX's Greg Groogan.

"If you go to Cancun when we need you most, then my goodness, get out of the way and let someone else do the job," Allred said at a recent phone banking event.

At the debate, both also accused the other of not standing up for their people. 

"Just two weeks ago, Congressman Allred joined a hundred radical Democrats in demanding our military allow drag shows on military bases, pay for soldiers to have sex changes using taxpayer money, and pay for children to be sterilized and have sex changes," Cruz said during the debate. 

"What I think is that folks should not be discriminated against, and what Senator Cruz needs to explain to you, is why he thinks they should," Allred said during the debate.

"Each of those candidates tried to talk about the issues that were good for them, tried to paint a more negative portrait of their opponent," Henson said.