Elevated fire risk due to strong winds, warm temps, low humidity

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AUSTIN, Texas - There will be an elevated fire risk this Valentine's Day and tomorrow in all of Central Texas. Fire conditions will be worst in Hill Country where the strongest winds and driest weather will be though significant fire weather conditions are expected for coastal plain counties. Warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and strong winds will make for enhanced to near-critical fire weather conditions.

Officials are forecasting a SLIGHT RISK for north-central and northeast Texas. There is a VERY LOW RISK for Central Texas including Williamson and northeast Burnet County.

FOX 7 Austin meteorologist Carlo Falco RH values are in in the 10-30% range today, rising to 15-40% Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will be lightest today with sustained winds 10-20 mph. Tuesday and Wednesday winds increase to 15-25 mph. Red Flag Warnings are possible for parts of the FOX 7 Austin viewing area Tuesday and Wednesday.

Any fires that are started today through Wednesday will have the potential for a rapid rate of spread. Moderate to severe drought conditions have persisted for much of Hill Country and recent rains were not enough to significantly improve conditions. Humidity will rise on Wednesday, improving fire conditions through the winds stay strong with an approaching cold front.

The conditions are expected to be the worst from 11 a.m. - 6 p.m. today and tomorrow. Wednesday fire conditions are dependent on moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico which will increase later in the day.

Strong and severe thunderstorms could happen late Wednesday evening and overnight into early Thursday morning. says exact timing should be available Tuesday and Wednesday as higher-resolution models come into range. A few thunderstorms could contain small hail, lightning and some gusty winds. Significant severe weather looks very unlikely as the worst of the storms will be far northeast of Austin.

Overall, the severe weather threat looks very low. The best dynamics will be held to northeast Texas.