Could Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Here’s what the polls say
Following Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party appears to be injected with new energy.
Harris, 59, secured enough support from delegates on Monday to clinch the Democratic nomination, and she raised a record-breaking $81 million within 24 hours of announcing her candidacy for president.
Despite this, questions still remain about how she might fare against former President Donald Trump in the upcoming 2024 election.
Election polls show Harris lagging behind the former president by a small, but not insurmountable margin. These figures are a slight improvement from President Joe Biden. However, many of these polls were conducted before Biden’s drop-out announcement, and surveys about the potential performance of hypothetical candidates can often be inaccurate.
Here’s a look at where Harris stands in the polls in the first few days since Biden’s announcement.
Reuters/Ipsos poll: Harris 44, Trump 42
The Ispos/Reuters poll, conducted Monday and Tuesday, showed that Harris opened up a marginal two-percentage-point lead over Trump.
This compares to a two-point deficit Biden faced against Trump in last week's poll before his Sunday exit from the race.
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Marist/NPR/PBS News: Harris 45, Trump 46
According to the Marist/NPR/PBS News poll, Trump has a one-point lead against Harris, and 9% remain undecided. The poll of 1,309 adults was conducted Monday via online research panels.
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In contrast, Marist’s survey earlier this month showed just 2% of respondents were undecided between Trump and Biden.
Morning Consult: Harris 45, Trump 47
Trump leads Harris by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, in Morning Consult’s poll, which was conducted after Biden announced his decision to step aside.
This marks an improvement from the 6-point margin Biden faced in their surveys conducted ahead of his exit from the race.
The survey also found that 65% of Democratic voters supported Harris to lead the party’s ticket, more than double the level of support she had in a hypothetical look at the same question late last month following the first presidential debate.
YouGov/Yahoo News: Harris 46, Trump 46
A YouGov/Yahoo News poll, which surveyed 1,743 U.S adults between July 19-July 22, found Harris and Trump virtually tied.
When asked, ‘If the 2024 election for president were held today, and these were the options, who would you vote for?’, 46% of respondents said they would vote for Harris and 46% said they would vote for Trump.
SoCal Research/On Point Politics: Harris 43, Trump 51
The On Point Politics/SoCal Research national poll was conducted online using the Pollfish panel on July 21, 2024. The poll has a sample size of 800 and a +/-3.5% margin of error.
Trump maintained his 8-point national lead against Harris. When third parties were included, Trump’s lead dropped slightly to 43-37.
Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet: Harris 44, Trump 49
A new poll conducted by Florida Atlantic University’s Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab and Mainstreet Research USA showed Harris narrowing Trump’s lead within 5 points (44% to 49%).
Harris’ gains occurred prior to her endorsement by Biden. The race was moving away from Biden who had fallen behind Trump 49% to 41% – the largest deficit since the PolCom Lab and Mainstreet Research USA’s polling began.
Quinnipiac University: Harris 47, Trump 49
In a poll conducted from July 19 to July 21, 49% of voters said they supported Trump and 47% of voters supported Harris.
They noted that the poll had "no clear leader" as the lead was within the margin of error.
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The poll also showed 55% of independent voters in favor of Trump and 41% in favor of Harris.
Echelon Insights: Harris 47, Trump 49
In Echelon Insight’s poll, which surveyed 982 voters, Trump led Harris 49% to 47%.
The poll was conducted between July 19 and July 21.
HarrisX/Forbes: Harris 46, Trump 54
A poll released by HarrisX and Forbes showed Trump more than doubling his lead over Biden and Harris following the Republican National Convention (RNC).
The poll, taken before Biden officially dropped out of the race, indicated Trump leading Biden among registered voters 48%-40% and leading Harris 50% to 41%.
The poll, which was conducted July 19-21, 2024 with 2,753 registered voters, also shows that voters expect Trump to win in November. Nearly two in three (63%) say he would win against Harris.
Survey: Opinion of Harris, Trump
According to a FiveThirtyEight poll conducted before Biden dropped out, a slight majority of Americans had a negative opinion of Harris.
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Some 51% of Americans disapproved of Harris to 38% approved. Trump had a higher disapproval rating at 53%, but 39% of Americans approved of him.
This story was reported from Los Angeles.