Ken Paxton eyes John Cornyn's Senate seat. Here's what the polls show

DALLAS - Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton officially announced his bid for US Senate on Tuesday, bringing a Republican primary challenge to incumbent John Cornyn.

Paxton has teased a Senate run since shortly after his acquittal in his 2023 impeachment trial.

Recent polls suggest that Paxton has a good chance at upending Texas' senior senator in 2026.

What do the polls say?

By the numbers:

In early April, the Texas Politics Project released job approval trends for Paxton and Cornyn.

In February, 37% of those polled said they did not approve of the job Cornyn was doing in the Senate, while 30% said they approved with 33% saying they either didn't know or they didn't approve or disapprove. 

Paxton's numbers in February were better, with 34% of those polled saying they disapproved of the job Paxton was doing as attorney general, while 37% approved and 29% saying they didn't know or didn't approve or disapprove.

Among Republicans and independents polled by the Texas Politics Project, Paxton appears to be the preferred candidate.

Polling found 27% of Republicans polled and 8% of independents strongly approved of Paxton and another 35% of Republicans and 14% of independents somewhat approved.

In those same groups, 17% of Republicans and 1% of independents strongly approved of Cornyn, and 32% of Republicans and 10% of independents somewhat approved.

Texas Public Opinion Research

In March, Texas Public Opinion Research, which describes itself as a nonpartisan initiative that studies Texans' beliefs, attitudes, values and policy preferences, surveyed 700 registered voters on a variety of issues, including favorability ratings for several well-known political figures in the state.

The group's polling shows only 21% of voters polled had a favorable opinion of Cornyn, while 43% had an unfavorable opinion.

In the same poll, 35% of voters held a favorable opinion of Paxton, while 40% had an unfavorable opinion.

Paxton announces Senate run

What they're saying:

Paxton made the announcement on the Ingraham Angle on Tuesday night.

"It's definitely time for a change in Texas. We have a great US Senator in Ted Cruz and it's time we have another great Senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, the values of the people of Texas and also support Donald Trump in a very significant way," said Paxton.

After the TV appearance, Paxton released a statement.

"I’m running for U.S. Senate to fight for President Trump’s agenda and take a sledgehammer to the D.C. establishment," he said. "John Cornyn has been in Washington for over two decades, and he has turned his back on President Trump and the America First agenda time after time. He's said President Trump’s ‘time has passed him by’ and called President Trump’s border wall ‘naive.’ Texans deserve far better than a Senator who thinks it’s ‘naive’ to build a border wall to protect our citizens. It’s crystal clear that it’s time for a change. I’m a battle-tested Attorney General and conservative warrior who’s secured major victories against the establishment, the corrupt Biden Administration, and woke corporations. Now, I’m ready to take that same toughness to the U.S. Senate."

Ken Paxton controversies

Ken Paxton has been a controversial figure in Texas politics.

Timeline:

Paxton was indicted on state securities fraud charges in 2015. He was accused of duping investors in a tech startup near Dallas before he was elected attorney general. In 2024, Paxton reached a deal to have the felony counts against him dropped. In exchange, Paxton was required to make full restitution to victims — roughly $300,000 — and must also complete 100 hours of community service and 15 hours of legal ethics education.

In Oct. 2020, some of Paxton's aides went to the FBI, alleging that the attorney general used his office to help his friend and donor, Austin real estate developer Nate Paul. Paul also employed a woman with whom Paxton acknowledged having had an extramarital affair. The Justice Department made the decision not to prosecute Paxton during the final weeks of the Biden administration, according to the Associated Press.

The allegations were at the center of Paxton's impeachment by the Texas House in 2023 on articles of bribery and abuse of public trust. He was acquitted by the Texas Senate in the political trial. 

Last week, a Travis County judge ordered Paxton to pay the aides that reported him to the FBI $6.6 million for violating the Texas Whistleblower Act. The whistleblowers were fired a month after they made the report. Paxton is expected to appeal the ruling.

Cornyn on Paxton run

Cornyn's campaign responded to Paxton's announcement on Tuesday night.

"Ken Paxton is a fraud. He talks tough on crime and then lets crooked progressive Lina Hildago off the hook. He says his impeachment trial was a sham but he didn’t contest the facts in legal filings which will cost the state millions. He says he’s anti-woke but he funnels millions of taxpayer dollars to lawyers who celebrate DEI. And Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family," said a spokesperson for the Cornyn campaign. "This will be a spirited campaign and we assure Texans they will have a real choice when this race is over."

In an interview with FOX 4's Steven Dial last week, Cornyn said he has always had a contested primary and looks forward to the challenge.

The backstory:

Senator John Cornyn announced he was running for a fifth term in the Senate late last month.

Cornyn has not lost an election in Texas.

He was elected to the Texas Supreme Court in 1990, won an attorney general race in 1998 and then defeated a crowded field to become US Senator in 2002.

Paxton, Cornyn back and forth

Paxton and Cornyn have publicly taken shots at each other in recent years.

Cornyn spoke out against Paxton ahead of the attorney general's political trial, saying he was troubled by the allegations against the attorney general.

After his acquittal, Paxton turned his sights against Cornyn.

Paxton has consistently referred to Cornyn as a RINO, or a "Republican in name only."

"I've seen how guys like John Cornyn have represented the State of Texas and not represented us, I think it's time somebody needs to step up and run against this guy that will do the job and do it the right way," Paxton told former FOX News host Tucker Carlson.

In his campaign announcement video in March, Cornyn touted backing President Trump more than 95 percent of Senators during his first term. 

Paxton responded to the video, asking Cornyn "Are you delusional?"

Cornyn replied saying, "I'm not."

In February, Paxton called Cornyn "anti-Trump" and "anti-gun" in a post calling for a primary challenge to Cornyn on social media.

"Hard to run from prison, Ken," Cornyn responded.

Paxton hit back at Cornyn after news came out that the Justice Department had stopped pursuing charges against him.

The attorney general shared a screenshot of the article from the AP saying "Care to comment now, John?"

2026 Elections

What's next:

The 2026 elections will be important in Texas.

In addition to voting for US Senate, Texans will have an opportunity to vote for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general, among several other positions.

Primary elections will be held in March with runoff elections in May.