2026 US Senate: What new poll shows about possible Ken Paxton, John Cornyn race

HOUSTON - More than half of Texas Republicans say they would at least consider voting for Attorney General Ken Paxton if he ran in the Republican US Senate primary.

Paxton is considering a challenge to sitting Senator John Cornyn.

According to a new poll from the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs, around 68% of Republicans who either voted in the 2022 or 2024, or are likely to vote in the 2026 Republican primary said they would consider a vote for the attorney general.

Among those same Republicans, 75% said they would consider voting for incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.

By the numbers:

The polls surveyed 556 Texans who said they are likely to vote in the 2026 primary and 377 Texans who voted in either one or both of the 2022 and 2024 primaries.

While the numbers seem favorable towards Cornyn's reelection campaign, when likely voters for 2026 were asked if they would reelect Cornyn, only 28% said they would definitely vote for reelection, while another 34% said they would probably vote to reelect him.

When asked another way, 31% of those voters said they would definitely consider voting for Cornyn, while 42% might consider voting for him.

Compare that to Paxton and 33% of 2026 primary voters say they would definitely vote for Paxton and 33% said they might consider voting for Paxton.

When you add those numbers to the Texans that voted in previous primaries, 32% said they would definitely consider voting for Cornyn and 43% said they might consider it.

When asked about Paxton, 36% of those polled said they would definitely consider voting for him and another 32% said they might consider voting.

While Paxton and Cornyn have been the names that voters have heard the most for the upcoming Senate race, Rep. Dan Crenshaw also polled above 50% of 2026 voters with 21% saying they would definitely vote for the congressman and 30% saying they might consider voting for him.

Crenshaw currently serves in Texas' Second Congressional District, which covers portions of Harris and Montgomery counties.

Favorable or unfavorable

The poll also asked respondents if their opinion was favorable or unfavorable of certain Republican political figures.

Respondents were given nine names:

• Greg Abbott
• Dustin Burrows
• John Cornyn
• Ted Cruz
• Elon Musk
• Dan Patrick
• Ken Paxton
• Donald Trump
• JD Vance

The polling found President Donald Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott were the most favorable among Texas Republicans.

The poll found that 53% of voters had a favorable opinion of Cornyn, while 35% viewed him as unfavorable. The other 12% of respondents said they did not know enough about him to form an opinion.

Of those same voters, 60% had a favorable opinion of Paxton, 25% viewed him as unfavorable and 15% didn't know enough to form an opinion.

2026 Senate Race

The backstory:

It's still unclear if Paxton will run for Senate in 2026.

Paxton did an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson where he said he still hasn't decided if he'll run a primary campaign against Cornyn.

"I don't know if I'm running for sure. I'm looking at it," Paxton said. "Probably in the next few months I'll be talking to people around the state."

Cornyn has served in the US Senate since 2002 and Paxton said he'd never really faced a true primary challenge.

"Primary voters, if they're educated, will make good choices based on what you've actually done," Paxton said.

Paxton previously criticized Cornyn while speaking with Republicans in Denton County in January.

While speaking to members of the Republican Party in Denton County last month, Paxton listed several Republicans, including Cornyn, that he'd like to see removed from the party for not being conservative enough.

"The second thing we need to do, and I might play a role in this, is replace John Cornyn in the U.S. Senate." Paxton said.

Paxton has hinted at a possible Senate run since he was acquitted in his 2023 impeachment trial.

Cornyn spoke out against Paxton ahead of the political trial, saying he was troubled by the allegations against the attorney general.

After his acquittal, Paxton turned his sights against Cornyn.

Paxton has consistently referred to Cornyn as a RINO, or a "Republican in name only."

John Cornyn

Cornyn has already announced his intention to run in 2026.

Cornyn has not lost an election in Texas.

He was elected to the Texas Supreme Court in 1990, won an attorney general race in 1998 and then defeated a crowded field to become US Senator in 2002.

Cornyn has taken on several committee assignments this year, including those on finance, foreign relations and budget.

Texas PoliticsKen PaxtonTexas