State Sen. Roland Gutierrez enters Democratic primary for Ted Cruz's seat

AUSTIN, Texas - Texas State Sen. Roland Gutierrez is entering the Democratic primary to ultimately challenge U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. 

His campaign is going to focus on gun restrictions, especially after the mass shooting at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, his district. 19 children and two teachers died in the shooting last May. 

Gutierrez joins U.S. Rep Colin Allred, who announced his candidacy in May.

Democratic analyst Ed Espinoza and Matt Mackowiak, chair of the Travis County Republican Party, join FOX 7 Austin's Mike Warren to discuss.

MIKE WARREN: Ed, first of all, what do you make of this candidacy?

ED ESPINOZA: Well, I mean, he has a lot to say. Right. I mean, Texas has had something like a dozen mass shootings in the past 10 to 14 years. So I think that this is a major issue when you look at the huge polling that has come out. Gun violence is the second-highest polling concern on people's minds in Texas. So that is a big issue. By the way, this is not the only issue he is running on in his announcement today. He has also mentioned health care, the energy grid, corruption in our state, and a list of other issues that he has witnessed in the state Senate here in Texas. I think it will be a competitive campaign and a spirited one with Representative Colin Allred. 

MIKE WARREN: Matt Mackowiak. What do you make of this announcement? And is he a serious candidate?

MATT MACKOWIAK: Yeah. So he's not up for reelection. He drew a four-year term in the state Senate. So this basically makes this Senate bid a free shot for him. He doesn't have to give up his seat, doesn't have to choose which office he's going to seek. So I think this is as much about raising the issues that matter to him as raising his profile, raising his donor base for the future as probably anything else. Look, Colin Allred is a sitting member of Congress from North Texas. He played football at Baylor. Presumably, he would have some strength in DFW area. He appears to have the National Party behind him. Gutierrez would have strengthens in San Antonio and in South Texas. And so it seems to me that the primary may be decided in Houston, where neither of them are very well known. But look, Roland is going to run to the left and already may run more to the center left. And so it's going to be interesting to see. You would generally think that the more progressive candidate would come out of the primary.

MIKE WARREN: Ed Espinosa. Ted Cruz, obviously, he had a very close race. He barely beat Beto back in 2018. Is he still vulnerable now?

ED ESPINOZA: Potentially? You know, Ted Cruz has never polled very well even in Texas right now. He polls in the low to mid-forties, which is not a great position for somebody who's been a U.S. senator from Texas for 12 years. So almost 12 years. So I think that there are potential vulnerabilities. Having said that, 2024 is not like 2018. The landscape is a little different. But the candidates he faces will also be a little different. And similar to what Matt said a moment ago. Questions for Roland Gutierrez and Colin Allred will be which voters can they mobilize that can make up the gap that Democrats have had in recent elections. Roland Gutierrez can potentially mobilize more Latino voters, particularly in south Texas and San Antonio. Colin Allred might be able to mobilize more African-American voters in East Texas and North Texas, but there's nothing to say that either of them can't win crossover votes from those constituencies as well. The real question is, can they get enough to show up in the general election to make it competitive against Ted Cruz? I think they can. This is going to be a long and expensive campaign. And Ted Cruz, not very popular. 

MIKE WARREN: Matt Mackowiak, what about Ted Cruz? How strong is he? And will these candidates present a problem for his reelection?

MATT MACKOWIAK: Yeah, he's in a stronger position than he was in 2018. I mean, Beto raised more money for that Senate race than anyone who's ever run for U.S. Senate. And Cruz was coming out of having just run for president in a bruising Republican primary against Trump, where his image took a hit among some Republicans. He's repaired almost all of that image issue at this point, and he's continued to gain seniority and pass legislation that can benefit Texans. And in a presidential year, where you have voters behaving in sort of predictable ways, I think it's unlikely, extremely unlikely, in fact, that Cruz loses. Now, the question is going to be the margin, as we saw in 2018 when the margin was 2.7%. Cruz won, but we had a lot of Republicans down ballot lose. So Cruz is going to want to win by a much bigger margin. And I think he'll be held by the Republican nominee, whoever that is.