Politics in Texas in 2024 expected to be busy, experts say

AUSTIN, Texas - There’s no doubt 2024 is going to be a big year on the national political stage, but it’s also expected to be a busy year in Texas politics, from abortion to the border to political retribution.

Notably, the Texas Legislature is not actually in session in 2024, but experts say not to rule out another special session. And if there’s anything we learned from last year, it’s to expect the unexpected.

"There's going to be so much that is just unpredictable," said Scott Braddock, editor of quorumreport.com.

Braddock says we can expect some Texas political payback in 2024, aimed at Republicans who voted against Gov. Greg Abbott’s school choice voucher plan, or for Attorney General Ken Paxton’s impeachment.

"It’s going to be a story of retribution by Governor Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton that's going to play out in the Texas Republican primary," said Braddock.

MORE STORIES:

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• U.S. Department of Justice says it will sue if Texas enforces new law punishing illegal border crossing

Braddock doesn’t think that tactic would move the needle enough to actually pass Abbott’s plan to give families public money to send their children to private school, after it failed four times last year. But, at the same time, he says don’t rule out another special session.

"Lt. Gov. Patrick has suggested a special session in February. I would say that that's unlikely, although I still think that just because this would be unproductive and silly, that doesn't mean the governor won't do it," said Braddock.

Also, front and center will be abortion, with a majority of Texans opposing the state’s near-total ban.

"The race in which this is going to matter is the race for U.S. Senate," said Braddock.

With incumbent Ted Cruz dodging questions on abortion, Braddock says he expects his opponent, likely Colin Allred or Roland Gutierrez, to capitalize on it.

"They’re going to want to really focus on the abortion issue because it has the potential to not only turn out Democrats, but also flip some folks who have traditionally voted for Republicans," said Braddock.

And then there’s the border. This march, Senate Bill 4, which allows Texas police to arrest suspected undocumented immigrants, is set to go into effect. Despite challenges to the law from the Department of Justice, and push back on Abbott’s migrant bus program, Braddock expects the governor to double down on his border policies in the coming year.

"He’s been able to use the border to remain strong with Republican voters. It is the issue that inflames the Republican base the most. Although we may see here in the beginning of the year some attempt to try to hammer out some kind of an agreement in Washington on border security. And Chip Roy from Central Texas, one of the congressmen who's a Republican, has said that he'd be willing to do a deal with Biden, even if it takes the issue off the table for the November general election, which is pretty interesting," said Braddock.

You can watch the full interview with Scott Braddock—including the impact this year’s presidential race could have on Texas politics—in this weekend’s FOX 7 Focus. It airs Saturday night on FOX 7 Austin News at 9, and streaming at fox7austin.com.