Texas politics in 2024: What will be the biggest stories in the new year?

Texas politics in 2024: A look ahead

The legislature may not be in session, but it could still be a very busy year in Texas politics. FOX 7 Austin's John Krinjak takes a look ahead with Texas political expert Scott Braddock.

AUSTIN, Texas - There's no question 2024 is going to be a big year on the national political stage with an unprecedented presidential race unfolding. But it's also expected to be a busy year in Texas politics, despite the legislature not being in a regular session.

FOX 7 Austin's John Krinjak spoke with Scott Braddock, editor of QuorumReport.com, to take a look ahead at Texas politics in the new year.

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JOHN KRINJAK: The new year just began. From where we stand right now, I know a lot can change, but what do you see as being the dominant Texas political story in the year ahead?

SCOTT BRADDOCK: I think a few things. One, it's going to be a story of retribution by Gov. Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton that's going to play out in the Texas Republican primary in the general election. I think abortion is going to be the big issue if Democrats can get their act together, which is a tall order in Texas, and it's going to be the first time that you have the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade be really litigated in an election. And, of course, you know, nationally, you're going to have this just overlay of everything happening in Texas politics, the presidential race. That's the number one thing.

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It may be a new year, but the hot topics This Week in Texas Politics were some that dominated 2023. FOX 7 Austin's chief political reporter Rudy Koski and our panel of analysts have a look at the big issues that kicked off 2024.

JOHN KRINJAK: Let's talk about abortion really quick. We have lots of pending cases here in Texas. We continue to have that near-total abortion ban remaining in effect. It's something that most Texans believe is too restrictive. What do you see happening on this issue here in our state?

SCOTT BRADDOCK: The race in which this is going to matter is the race for U.S. Senate. Statewide, the only big race, the marquee race, if you will, is Sen. Ted Cruz running for reelection. And as you know, and you've seen, Sen. Cruz has gone out of his way to not answer any questions about this. He's almost run from reporters who ask him about it. But if any Democratic money does come in Texas, surging in for either Colin Allred or State Sen. Roland Gutierrez, whoever wins that Democratic primary, they're going to want to really focus on the abortion issue because it has the potential to not only turn out Democrats, but also flip some folks who have traditionally voted for Republicans, or at least been open to voting for Republicans. A lot of those folks would be suburban women around the state.

JOHN KRINJAK: We know the border is obviously going to be a big issue, both on the national stage and here in Texas. We see the Texas law being challenged by the Justice Department that allows police to arrest people they suspect of being undocumented migrants. We're seeing pushback over Gov. Abbott bussing migrants to cities up north. What do you see playing out when it comes to the border this year?

SCOTT BRADDOCK: This is where Gov. Abbott accrues his political capital, and has been able to use this letter to remain strong with Republican voters. It is the issue that inflames the Republican base the most. Although we may see here in the beginning of the year some attempt to try to hammer out some kind of an agreement in Washington on border security. And Chip Roy from Central Texas, one of the congressmen who's a Republican, has said that he'd be willing to do a deal with Biden, even if it takes the issue off the table for the November general election, which is pretty interesting.

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JOHN KRINJAK: And you mentioned vouchers. It seems no matter how many special sessions the governor calls, he just can't get the school choice plan across the finish line. What do you see happening, if anything, on that front this year? Do you think we'll see another special session?

SCOTT BRADDOCK: Lt. Gov. Patrick has suggested a special session in February. I would say that that's unlikely, although I still think that just because this would be unproductive and silly, that doesn't mean the governor won't do it.

JOHN KRINJAK: All indications show that we're looking at a Biden-Trump rematch when we look at the national stage. But how could that presidential race impact politics here in Texas in 2024?

SCOTT BRADDOCK: You know, Republicans privately for years have complained that when Pres. Trump, or former Pres. Trump, is at the top of the ticket, he does hurt their chances down ballot. And we do have at least a few legislative races in the state that could be competitive in the fall. Some of those in Dallas-Fort Worth and in the Valley, there aren't any here in central Texas I'm aware of. The congressional map is pretty much set, but for the legislature, you could see some of those seats flip back to the Democratic Party this fall. But if you have Democrats, you know, really energized to get out and turn out against former Pres. Trump. And that does have an impact down ballot.