Texas Senate debate: New poll increases stakes for candidates

AUSTIN, Texas - Early voting starts October 21 in Texas. With time running out, Ted Cruz has been out speaking at rallies. And for Colin Allred, the campaign trail has taken him to places like Dallas. 

On Tuesday, a new poll was released from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs. In the Texas Senate race, 50% of those who responded said they will vote for incumbent Republican Ted Cruz, and 46% plan to vote for Democrat challenger Congressman Colin Allred.  

A few days ago, there was a report that internal polling by one of the political parties had the race down to one percentage point. Three weeks ago, another poll had the race tied. 

FOX 7 spoke to Mark Jones, a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Houston, about the poll.

"What it suggests is that Senator Cruz is doing a little better, in part because voters are getting to know Colin Allred and some of them are developing a negative opinion of Colin Allred," said Jones.

Ted Cruz increased the number of attack ads against Allred just before the new survey began. In interviews, like one recently with FOX's Greg Groogan, Cruz continued to go on the attack.

"Collin Allred's record has been hard left," said Cruz.

Allred maintains strong support from African Americans in the "Texas Votes" poll.  With women, he holds a 7-point lead.

In a recent interview with FOX's Steven Dial, Allred made it clear he is counting on turnout.

"Well, we're going to beat Ted Cruz. We're going to beat Ted Cruz by every Texan coming out and being involved in this election," said Allred. 

The messaging for the Senate debate on Tuesday, Oct. 15, however, is expected to be focused on a shrinking target audience. According to the poll, 96% of likely voters say they've locked down their support for either Cruz or Allred.

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"This debate is focusing on the 4% of Cruz voters and the 4% of Allred voters who aren't 100% committed to their candidate and another about 3 or 4% who are undecided. And then another group that's undecided about whether they're going to turn out to vote or not," said Jones.

With such a small percentage to go for, Jones believes Allred needs a big night to make a difference.

"Without question, Allred needs a knockout blow. If this race continues along the status quo, Cruz wins by a relatively narrow margin, but he wins nonetheless. And that's all that really counts at the end of the day. Allred really needs to do something in this debate to shake it up. And that's difficult because it's a little like Georgia going into Texas," said Jones in a reference to Saturday’s big college game at DKR.

In the Senate political football game, both candidates hold wild cards. 

For Cruz, according to the poll, its independent voters who favor him 48% to 42%. The poll suggests that Allred’s wild card will be the people who were no shows in the 2022 election, but plan to vote now. With them, Allred leads Cruz 51% to 40%.