Texas weather: Will forecasted rain put a dent in drought?

Texas drought: Will rain next week help?

With some significant rain forecasted for next week, many are asking: will this put a dent in the ongoing drought?

AUSTIN, Texas - In December, the Barton Springs/Edwards Aquifer Conservation District declared Stage IV Exceptional Drought for the first time in its history.

With rain forecasted for Central Texas next week, the district will continue to monitor the Edwards Aquifer using two markers: Barton Springs and the Lovelady Monitor Well.

"What I'm most excited about for the forecast is this notion of maybe a prolonged period, multiple days of rain, and that's what we really need," said Dr. Tim Loftus, general manager of BSEACD. "Four inches that falls in one hour versus four inches that falls over two days has a very different effect on the relationship between what runs off and what actually soaks into the ground."

Loftus said all eyes will be on Lovelady to see how it responds. Right now, it is just under the Stage IV threshold.

"It may be a couple of weeks before we really have a good feel because Lovelady’s response is definitely more muted than flow at Barton Springs," said Loftus.

Exceptional drought declared in central Texas

For the first time in its 36-year history, the Barton Springs/Edwards Aquifer Conservation District is declaring a stage four exceptional drought.

The Highland Lakes serve as another primary water source for Central Texas, including the City of Austin.

The forecast there is less hopeful.

"Everything that we're seeing is that it's not going to rain where we need it to…we need it to rain in the watershed. We need above Burnet and Llano to get rain so it can flow down," said Shannon Hamilton, executive director of the Central Texas Water Coalition. "It’s going to take 8 to 10 inches over the watershed for us really to make a dent in our lakes."

Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan are currently 42% full, according to LCRA.

The graph below shows historical water flow into these lakes.

Hamilton noted their hydrologist is projecting mandatory water cut-offs by next October if water levels and inflows don't improve.

"Our water management plan depends on historical averages, but we don't have that any longer," said Hamilton. "The new trend is much less water coming in, and that's what we have to plan for."

Hamilton emphasized the importance of year-round water conservation.

In the wintertime, that may mean quickly fixing broken pipes or putting time limits on hot showers.

"Be mindful that when it comes above freezing, and you can turn off your faucets (after dripping), go turn them back off. And everybody's irrigation system should be off right now," said Hamilton. "So it's little things, but all those things add up because we are still dropping - every day we’re dropping."

This month, BSEACD announced the installation of two new monitoring wells beginning in January. One will be located in Garrison Park and one will be in Zilker Park.

The Garrison well will be "used to collect Edwards Aquifer water level and water quality data," according to BSEACD. The Zilker well will be a multiport well that is "capable of monitoring multiple aquifer zones, providing a more in-depth and comprehensive understanding of the aquifer at hand."