UT model predicts COVID-19 to worsen by Thanksgiving in Travis County

AUSTIN, Texas - Last month, models showed Travis County hitting a plateau but over the past two weeks, the virus is threatening a potential second wave. Interim Austin Public Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott said actions need to change now.

“Our cases are rising, the number of individuals admitted to hospitals is rising, our ICUs and ventilator use is rising,” said Dr. Escott. “This is not an election day gimmick, this is real and the situation is changing.”

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Austin Public Health Chief Epidemiologist Janet Pichette said her office is encountering people who are going out waiting for test results.

“We have investigated many, many cases where time after time people are symptomatic and they continue to go out and about, exposing other individuals even though they know they are symptomatic and they are waiting for test results,” said Pichette.

RELATED: Travis County officials concerned for possible COVID-19 resurgence

Based on the transmission and mobility of the virus, a UT model predicts a 96 percent chance of COVID-19 worsening in Travis County. Statewide, Dr. Escott said projections show there will be a 257 percent increase in cases 

“Our hospitals are better prepared and our teams are used to managing COVID-19 cases,“ said Escott.“Now is the time we can affect the curve over the next several weeks to ensure that we can have a reasonable Thanksgiving.”

RELATED: With foot traffic down 80%, downtown businesses weighing options

Dr. Escott emphasizes prevention is key, good hygiene, masking, social distancing is needed.

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